Only One Football

FC Barcelona’s bid to put a MLS club in Miami is dead, according to the great Ives Galarcep, and Vancouver now stands out as the front runner.  With New York City, Montreal and now Miami-backed-by-Barca fallen by the wayside and the Dow Jones at less than 50% of what it was last Fall, it makes sense for MLS to make the safe play as far as expansion is concerned.  The safe play is most definitely to move forward with Vancouver and Portland as the league’s 17th and 18th teams.

Both cities boast successful USL1 franchises right now.  Seattle Sounders FC’s transition from USL to MLS is off to an overwhelmingly successful start, with the club selling nearly 20,000 season tickets and selling out its opener against the New York Red Bulls.  Toronto FC is the only franchise in MLS with comparable success.  Vancouver and Portland come from not only the same region as Seattle, the Pacific Northwest, but the same USL roots.  Adding those two clubs will create a profitable three way derby and tap into established fan bases and already successful operations.

Compare that to the Ottawa and St. Louis bids, the only other two left on the table (Atlanta also pulled out).  Ottawa would be the MLS’s smallest market from the start and while it would attract a rivalry with Toronto, it is down the list of attractive markets in Canada.  While it has a nice ownership group, it does not offer the type of guaranteed success that Portland and Vancouver do.  St. Louis is more attractive being one of the hot beds of US soccer.   MLS Commissioner Don Garber has spoken out on numerous occasions saying that there is not enough financial weight behind the St. Louis bid.  It is not clear that the situation has improved markedly since those comments were made and in these uncertain financial times that is an area in which it is a good call to be conservative.

If I were in Don Garber’s shoes, I would go with the safe choices of Vancouver and Portland.  I would politely advise the prospective ownership groups of Ottawa and St. Louis — and New York City for that matter — to open up a club in USL1.  Yes, I would send them to the competitor league.  I would tell them that they have a lot of potential but they should do what Vancouver, Portland and to an extent Monteral has done:  Establish a successful club in USL1, show that you can build a fan base, show you can run a successful soccer franchise and then come back in a few years for “promotion” to MLS.  USL1 is a relatively low investment for those owners and while it may not be the spotlight they are currently seeking, it will be a soft launch that minimizes their risk, also a good call in these times.  This type of approach is one where everyone wins.  MLS gets two strong clubs and establishes a pipeline for a few years down the line, USL1 gets new franchises and the chance to continue trying to pip MLS as the top North American soccer league and the fans in those areas get a high level of professional soccer.  In a time for sound investments, this approach is a winner.